Brazil raises juice exports

Orange juice became twice more expensive in US since the start of the summer season early in May. Now in min-Autumn its prices are declining. Additional negative is higher exports from Brazil. Will orange juice price continue falling?

Trade Department in Brazil reported higher exports of orange juice in September 2016 which rose to 226.46 thousand tonnes from 122.08 thousand tonnes in August 2016 and 127.73 thousand tonnes in September 2015. Theoretically the demand for soft drinks and orange juice may fall. The important reason which supports juice prices is formation of severe hurricane in the Atlantic near Cuba and Florida. Orange juice prices may depend on weather forecasts.

Orange

On the daily chart Orange: D1 is near the support of the rising trend. It failed to break down through it yet. Prices may get lower in case weather improves in the Atlantic, likewise if demand falls with the start of Fall/Winter season.

Parabolic gives bearish signals.
The Bollinger bands are contracting which means lower volatility.
RSI is above 50 having formed negative divergence.
MACD gives bearish signals.

The bearish momentum may develop in case orange juice breaks down through the uptrend line and falls below its low of 193 hit on Monday. This level may serve the point of entry. The initial stop-loss may be placed above the upper Bollinger band at 210. Having opened the pending order we shall move the stop to the next fractal high following the Parabolic and Bollinger signals. Thus, we are changing the probable profit/loss ratio to the breakeven point. The most risk-averse traders may switch to the 4-hour chart after the trade and place there a stop-loss moving it in the direction of the trade. If the price meets the stop-loss level at 210 without reaching the order at 193, we recommend cancelling the position: the market sustains internal changes which were not taken into account.
Technical analysis summary

Position Sell
Sell stop below 193
Stop loss above 210